What’s burning in your blood?
Under the fold below, I’ve included a poll question that should yield some interesting results: “When did you start reading the Swing State Project?”
For me, it was back in 2005 just before the Paul Hackett campaign started gaining steam in OH-02. That feels like a lifetime ago!
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FL-Prez, FL-08, FL-13, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25. Oh and I offically signed on at the end of 06 (election day) to SSP but I started lurking a bit when Hackett started his run.
Talk about getting rid of one of the biggest Bush enablers and you have to talk about Rep. Stearns in Florida’s 6th district. It would go a long way to get this 20 year incumbent out of the House.
Tim Cunha is running a strong campaign, but he has really just started and from scratch only a few months ago. Have a look at TimCunha.com. Tim was one of the first endorsers for the Responsible Plan for ending the war in Iraq and has proposed a number of progressive policy solutions.
Stearns is WAY right of his district. I believe it is a PVI R+08, so it won’t be easy, but Stearns is actually much more conservative than his district. AND the Univ. of Florida is in this district which can provide lots of young dem-leaning voters.
LoL I think that I started reading SSP around Aprilish of 2006, its when I got really interested in the congressional politics. I don’t think that I commented for the first time until closer to, if not after, the midterm elections. lol I was shy. It wasn’t until I realized that SSP was a lot more low-key and personal than say Kos or myDD that I actually started posting. Its now the 3rd site I visit in my list of places to go!
As for races that I’m interested in, of course, Debbie Cook in CA-46, give her money! Do it! lol
But other than the congressional race that I’m actually interning on, I still don’t know why, but I have this Alaska political-fetish… I don’t know what it is about Alaska. The thought of turning from red to blue the Senate seat, its Congressional seat and possibly its 3 electoral vote is just like warm apple pie! haha If you get my drift.
I’m also curious about NY-13, are the GOP ever going to catch a break with this seat?
Finaly Colorado-2, Jared Polis is running and would be the favorite to win the general election should he win his primary. Should he win both elections, he would be one of only three openly gay members of Congress. Now, I did say OPENLY gay, haha we all know there are more than that. Does anyone know any of the details of this race?
I feel that AZ-8 is generally an overlooked race. Republicans have a strong nominee in Tim Bee, who while behind in total dollars raised, is on a good clip right now raising money. He isnt a far right winged Republican like Randy Gaft was in 2006 and John McCain could have some coattails in these AZ races just as Obama will in IL. And unlike in 2006 when outgoing Congressman Jim Kolbe (R) was basically a silent backer of now Congresswoman Giffords, he is strongly supportering Tim Bee this year.
TPM has the story
Goode joins the good company of Mean Jean and Crazy Sam Graves in spreading this lie. Cheney repeated this lie first but later admitted his error. Apparently Goode didn’t get the memo.
Also his challenger Tom Perriello will be liveblogging at Firedoglake this Saturday so if you want to get a good feel for him check it out.
reading occasionally back in 2004, during the Bob Brigham and Tim Tagaris days, although usually just when someone else linked to it. Didn’t start reading every day until sometime around the transition to Scoop (this is Scoop, isn’t it?), which explains my nice low user id. But I didn’t start commenting and diarying on a regular basis until around the start of this year, when primary madness seized Kos and I started casting about for somewhere more calm.
I’m interested in everything, naturally, but I’m going to do my Q2 contributions this weekend and I think it’ll be AK-Sen (Begich), OR-Sen (Merkley), WA-08 (Burner), AZ-03 (Lord), CA-46 (Cook), NJ-05 (Shulman), and the GA-12 primary (Thomas).
Incumbent Kenny Hulshof is vacating this seat to run for governor of Missouri. I’m very interested to know what’s going to happen there in the 9th District. There’s a fractured Republican primary, I know, but how is the Democratic field looking for this race?
Also, is there any chance we can take back this “Little Dixie” district? A Dem has not represented it since 1996.
That year I gave to several candidates and only Melissa BBean won. I got smarter in 2006, screening for both pprogressives and people with a real chance to win. McCaskill, Sherrod Brown, Tester and Webb won. Lamont lost. In the House, McNerney, Courtney, Chris Murphy, Paul Hodes, Kirsten Gillebrand, Patrick Murphy, Chris Carney, Nick Lampson, Nancy Boyda and Tim Walz won. Carney is another Bean. But there were 15 losses.
This year I’m trying to concentrate on fewer races. IN the Senate Tom Allen (ME), Jeff Merkley (OR), Andrew Rice (OK) and Rick Noriega, with something to Begich (AK), Franken (MN) and Kleeb (NE). In the House on Debbie Cook (CA-46), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Joe Garcia (FL-25), Dan Seals (IL-10), Larry Kissell (NC-08), Vic Wulsin (OH-02), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Judy Feder (VA-10) and Darcy Burner (WA-08). Plus a little bit to a few others, and I’m waiting on primaries in FL and MO.
I’m also looking at NV-03. Dina Titus is up and running, and has got the DCCC and Emily’s List. Anyone know how liberal she is? I’m also looking at Colleen Callahan in IL-18, Kay Barnes in MO-06 and Joy Baker in MO-09. Also Schauer in MI-07 and how is Sam Bennett doing in PA-15?
I see that I signed up around 10:30 am on Tuesday, November 7, 2006. Maybe I made a trip to the grocery store to stock up on popcorn about that same time. Obviously I planned to be part of the party that evening! Surely I’d been lurking without commenting for quite a while, but the mists of time seem very thick for me nowadays.
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James, How about another parlor game: “Maximum Impact”
You might ask our armchair consultants something like this:
You are in charge of a 527 with $2 million bucks to use in support of Democrats, over and above what the party organizations and campaigns have to spend. The eccentric donor wants all the money to go for ads on broadcast TV (like many real Dem media consultants, he forgets that cable exists). And he wants you to target the money into one state, or one media market. But you get to choose the spot. Where should you invest for Maximum Impact? Why? First choice, second choice, third choice.
As an example, Albuquerque comes to mind. A bellwether state in the presidential level, an open Senate seat, and all three NM House seats lying in whole or in part in the media market being open and contested. Better than a two-fer or a three-fer, it’s a five-fer. But do we get Maximum Impact in Albuquerque? Maybe not if we’re gonna carry the state anyway, and the Senate race looks in-the-bank-the-check-has-cleared, as does one of the House seats. Alaska looks somewhat similar. And there’s Miami-Dade, with the three Cuban Mafia, er, Cuban Repubs running scared for the first time in forever. A case for Cincinnati. Or Fort Wayne, with a House seat, a Governor’s race, and a new battleground state. Oklahoma City, with only one race in the whole state, but the opportunity to make the single greatest qualitative change of any seat in the US Senate at stake this year. Others …
I’m gonna argue for Houston. Your nominations please?
Hey, what about this Anita Hartke lady who’s running against Eric Cantor in the Richmond district? She’s the daughter of the late Indiana Sen. Vance Hartke- does she have a chance?
Donate a small amount to Obama, a senate candidate, and a house candidate. Still debating.
Senate candidates I’m considering:
Begich, Musgrove, Merkley, Hagan, or Allen
House candidates I’m considering:
A range of seats I consider toss up or lean Republican.
Anything New Mexico, as anyone who knows me knows.
And I began reading in 2006 back when during the traumatic Madrid-Wilson race in NM-01.
I don’t know exactly why I joined, or how long I lurked before that, but I did know that I got into congressional races in 2006. Well, first, I just looked at the Senate races, but then I stayed up all night and watched for several days as results from close races like WY-AL, NC-08, WA-08, and OH-02 came in.
I started reading stuff about congressional races sometime after that. I’d been reading electoral-vote.com since 2004 (on and off), and then following it for 2006. I later found Senate Guru, and then Swing State Project, and then Politics1.
I have to say, Gary Trauner of WY-AL was the first candidate to inspire me to follow electoral politics, to take a more active role in demanding that we be represented by reasonable, sensible legislators, or something like that. So, I guess, George W. Bush first awakened me to politics in 2000, by being so absolutely odious time and time again, while Gary Trauner inspired me positively.
Why do you think I’m so into WY-AL?
She’s a good candidate. Should do well regardless of who the republicans nominate.
It will most likely be Bob Onder for the Republicans and Judy Baker for the Democrats.
I have an ActBlue page that includes Judy Baker on it, for those interested.
http://www.actblue.com/page/wa…
in their first June release. She was 4th among all U.S. House candidates and 8th among all candidates including Presidental and Senate candidates.
http://judybakerforcongress.co…
October 14th, 2006: the day after I stopped playing 5-10 no limits at the casino. I flopped the nuts and went all in. My opponent (a man in his 40’s with a handlebar moustache that looked like a ferret lived on his upper lip) called two pair and he wound up hitting runner runner hearts flush. I lost $700 on that hand ($1550 pot; it still hurts). I couldn’t sleep for 2 days and went on an internet binge, when I came upon this site and discovered that there were politics nerds just like me. I traded the seedy underbelly of gambling for the even seedier forum of politics.
Races I’m interested in:
MS-B Sen: Every poll seems to be 1-3 points either way. I want to see who pulls away first, or if they ever do.
AL-2, CO-4
ID-1: I don’t want to jinx it or jump the gun even before a poll is out but I think Bill Sali is done.
FL-21/25: I think I have a bit of a mancrush on Raul Martinez after seeing this. While I know violence is wrong, it’s the kind of stuff that gets people elected back home (South Texas).
LA-7, IL-10
MS-3: After the MS-1 pickup, my curiosity leads me to wonder what will happen here, which has an even bigger African-American population than MS-1.
NH-1, NV-3, NJ-5, NM-1/2
NC-10: I don’t think anything scares me more than young Republicans. Maybe clowns.
OH-1/2, VA-5/10
But I really want to see 2nd quarter reports. I can’t wait. It’s like Christmas but with PAC money.
Anyone old enough to remember watching Cronkite’s broadcasts of the first space missions and moon landings? The JFK, MLK, and RFK assassinations? The conventions and election night returns? Well … old Walter has some skin in the game in Missouri 6 – his first cousin, Kay Barnes, a progressive who is raising decent but not terrific money, is running against a neanderthal incumbent R. She could use some help also
at the 2006 Comedy Central ‘End of Year’ special. He basically laid out the whole Mark Foley situation — that a dude that liked to chase underage male Congressional pages was, naturally, the head of the subcommittee on missing and exploited children.
I believe Black’s line was, “What the fuck do you need me for, the joke writes itself?!?”
Gotta love the GOP.
David Vitter also cosponsered the FMA… And he’s a shining example of what a marriage should be.
Although I’m sure I started reading a bit before hand and then signed up. I had to do a paper in my Intro to Public Policy class, which was during the 06 midterms, where I found poll numbers for some Minnesota races and then analyze them and such. I found Election Projection, my first blog, which basically gave me every poll that ever came out so my paper was easy as hell. I became a HUGE Senate junky from reading polls and comments and stuff and House races were peaking my interest as well. I somehow stumbled along here and I come back 3-4 times a day every day ever since.
We should do a, what’s your blogroll question. I’d love to see what other people read, especially since I’m sure there are a lot of great blogs out there I’m not reading.
MN-3 tops my list. Madia was and is the most impressive candidate I’ve ever met. He’s 30, has a long ways to go if he continues in politics, solid on a lot of progressive issues but also moderate on a number of others. He has an awesome story; Indian immigrant to Undergrad. President at the U of Minnesota (Big 10 school with like 50,000 students), NYU law school, with marines in Iraq working on the country’s legal system. Bonus finding, one of the first lawyers to successfully argue against DADT.
Cantor’s district is a swath of Republican territory in between Richmond and Northern Virginia. It’s the second most Republican district in Virginia (Goodlatte’s being the first), and Hartke hasn’t raised much cash. The only competitive or potentially competitive races in Virginia are VA-02, 05, 10, and 11.
Seriously, you can’t make this shit up.
http://pageoneq.com/news/2008/…
your comment just mentions Larry Craig out of nowhere.
Very reminiscent of how he mentions himself being not gay out of nowhere.
It panders to the hidden alpha-male deep down inside me. It’s that subconscious feeling that us Democrats can act brutish sometimes too. I heard though that the reason why he acted out on this guy in particular, was that the man had hit a police officer. No excuse, I know it’s still completely inappropriate and very unmayoral, but if I was caught in a dark alley with John Boehner and Tom DeLay surrounding me like Jets in West Side Story, he’s the Shark I’d bring to my knife fight.
But in all actuality Joe Garcia is my favorite of the bunch. He’s also, I think, our best shot at picking up a seat in South Florida. Taddeo a close second but I think she also has the weakest shot of them.
It’s obvious why Larry Craig would sponsor the legislation to deny Gays the right to marry. Bitterness. After the hundreds of men he’s propositioned in bathrooms, trying to lure them with promises of marriage, and every one turning him down. He wants revenge.
One undiscovered Democratic treasure is in Fla’s 6th congressional district with Tim Cunha. The long time Republican incumbent (Cliff Stearns) will be challenged by someone (Cunha!) who possesses all the talents needed to help put this district back into the hands of the people.
Rep. Stearns has got to go because America can no longer afford his 19th Century solutions to our 21st Century challenges. Fortunately we have a forward-thinking candidate for Congressional District 6 with Tim Cunha. In November we can exercise our right to retire Stearns and his regressive agenda. We can vote to make Cunha our new congressman so he can work on behalf of Florida and all Americans towards realistic foreign policy, energy and economic solutions.
http://pollingreport.com/civil…
I found this Time Poll interesting. Support for gay marraige is over 40% and opposition to an amendment banning gay marriage is nearing 60%. I think we’re seeing the positive effects of CA and MA already.
Really tough. I’m not sure to what extent ideology fits into your decision-making, but in a non-ideological vacuum, I’d say that Musgrove, Merk and Hagan probably need the funds the most (Merk and Hagan have both depleted their cash reservoirs due to spending in the primary, and Musgrove has some catching up to do with Wicker’s moneybags). Allen’s fundraising has been good, and I expect that Begich will have a good quarter (but we’ll see).
Debbie Cook all the way!
which looks like Scoop on the surface but I guess if you know about this stuff is completely different underneath.
Drop the Begich and possibly Merkley donation. Those are pickups 5 and 6 for us so the DSCC will give them everything they need if needed. Cook and the other House candidates could use it more.
All, IMO.
Also, just wondering. Are you going to do a Senate version of the Where to Make Progress post? I know your cranking out a lot of fantastic work right now but that would be very useful.
I always figured Adam Putnam was the worst on that offense from the Florida crew.
How much has the candidate raised?
just looked at the district map That is some tough, tough country to cover. I’d move over a little and work on districts 8 and 24 instead (especially 24, Feeney reeks of DeLay, and I want all the NASA districts!)
Essentially the same as James L. I had visited this site previous to OH-02, as I was searching for good blog sites outside of Dailykos and MyDD, and this was decent, but when OH-02 special election came around this national blog gave by far the best local coverage, with Tim Tagaris and Bob Brigham on the ground. It slumped a bit afterwards as those 2 left, but picked up greatly with James L. After the ’06 elections and the beginning of primary season, my former favorite blog, MyDD, dropped down the list with the departure of Chris Bowers (I never cared too much for Stoller) and incessant coverage of the the frivolities of the ’08 primary race, making Swing State Project my favorite. From then on, the site has only gotten better.
Based on this article I read this week from CQ, I’d like to hear more about the following primary contests:
GA-12 Democratic Primary (July 15)
I’m interested to see if John Barrow loses will the Dems have an extra seat they need to spend money on to defend.
MI-13 Democratic Primary (August 5)
Let’s see if the mother of “yaw’s boy” can survive her son’s scandals and retain her imperialistic right to this Safe Democrat district.
TN-09 Democratic Primary (August 7)
Just wanted to see if the black vote will against split amongst a bunch of other candidates allowing the really white Steve Cohen to coast through to another term in office.
AK-AL Republican Primary (August 26)
Has Don Young found some useful dirt on his state’s Lt. Gov that he can use to save himself from suffering the fate of Frank Murkowski? Oh wait, isn’t Ethan Berkowitz just going to crush him by like 20 points or something?
And finally….
LA-02 Democratic Primary (September 6)
What befalls the fate of the scandal plagued William Jefferson? Now that Louisiana has switched to a more familiar primary system, can Jefferson survive and win another term in November before having to go to court a month afterwards?
Thanks for listening
(it didn’t seem to come out that way when I read my post)
That might be the kiss of death. Emily’s List has a poor track record, but Porter should be ripe for the taking.
As for Debbie Cook, I really hope she can make a race of it, it might be just a bit too Republican. But Rohrabacher is such a dolt there’s a sliver of a chance.
but very establishment. She won’t be a Bean but she won’t be a Barbara Lee either. She’ll be a pretty establishment, fairly progressive type. Sort of like my rep, Betty McCollum. She should get lots of help on her own. I’d invest in Baker or maybe Bennett instead. Callahan seems pretty Blue Dogish and in some areas so does Barnes but Barnes also does show some good progressive tendencies on some issues so it’s hard to tell.
Or maybe just give more per candidate. At this point Cook, Noriega and Rice do not seem like they are being targeted by the national groups and Wulsin, Feder and Perriello are still on the watch list so I’m giving extra to them.
has more gay Congressmen and Senators in Washington. Wouldn’t be surprised if it were the republicans. They have many closeted officials.
and donate here, I’ll match you so that your donation does double duty.
http://www.actblue.com/page/wa…
Tim Walz was my star candidate in 2006. This time around Judy Baker is my star candidate. I’m attracted to progressives with resumes that appeal to conservatives and moderates. Walz had that with his military credentials, Baker has it with her church credentials. Walz was the biggest ideological shift in 06 from Gutknecht. Baker replacing Hulshof would be comparable.
Gravitated over to Kos and MyDD after that. Could never seem to access this site for some reason until last summer. Lurked for a few months before creating an account in the fall. Followed Bowers to Open Left then started hanging out here when the primary wars became tiresome.
http://www.dailykingfish.com/s…
Calogne isn’t running. Maybe Woody will make it through the primary! Hahaha. Last I had heard, Calogne was going to run, so this is news to me. H/T DailyKingFish
are in my home state, with CA-04, CA-11, my home CA-26, and CA-46! Also a few races in the state legislature, with Hannah-Beth Jackson in SD-19 and a handful of Assembly districts that have a good chance of switching from R to D like the 78th, 80th, 15th, 10th, and 26th. And of course the plethora of ballot measures!